The Lipstick Index: What Beauty Tells Us About the Economy
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Every time the economy collapses — lipstick sells more.
This isn't a coincidence, and it isn't a myth. It's a documented economic phenomenon called The Lipstick Index.
How It Started
In 2001, following the September 11 attacks, the American economy was shaking. People were afraid, spending had stopped, and markets were in panic. But one company noticed something strange — lipstick sales rose 11% in just the last quarter of that year.
That company was Estée Lauder, and the man who noticed and named the phenomenon was Leonard Lauder, son of the brand's founder.
His theory was simple yet profound: when people can't afford big luxuries — a new car, travel, expensive clothes — they turn to small ones. Something that makes them happy, makes them feel good, without emptying their wallet.
The Numbers Speak
The Great Depression of 1929 saw beauty sales rise by 25%. The 2008 global financial crisis repeated the same pattern. And before all of this, the American government during World War II asked companies to keep producing lipstick — because it was lifting women's morale during the hardest of times.
The beauty industry, through all of this, came to be described as recession-proof.
One Exception: COVID-19
In 2020, lipstick sales dropped 15%. Not because people stopped looking for a moment of indulgence — but because masks covered their faces. The logic was the same; the circumstances changed.
But beauty didn't stop — it shifted. Everyone was home, everyone was sharing their skincare routines on social media. Skincare sales rose significantly throughout the pandemic. People still wanted to take care of themselves — just in a way that suited the moment.
From June to September 2021, after restrictions lifted, we saw the biggest rise in lip product sales since 2008. The phenomenon didn't die — it was just waiting.
Why Do Women Buy Beauty Products During Crises?
The answer is entirely human. There's a big difference between big luxury and a small moment of indulgence. Lipstick isn't just a color — it's the feeling that you're still taking care of yourself, that there's still something that makes you happy, without guilt and without emptying your pocket. It's humanity's way of telling itself "I'm okay" in the middle of difficult circumstances.
And Now, in the Middle East?
The beauty and personal care market in the Middle East reached $31 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach $40 billion by 2030. Saudi Arabia's beauty market is expected to reach $9.3 billion in 2026, and the UAE's at $3.5 billion.
The Lipstick Index isn't just a Western theory — it's a reality we're living right now.
With everything happening around us — will the same scenario repeat itself here?